-----Mensaje original----- De: Bertil Haggman Enviado el: miércoles 11 de febrero de 1998 4:45 Para: ernst-juenger-l@maillist.ox.ac.uk Asunto: EJ and Technical Development "Jede Jahrtausendwende bringt apokalyptische Visionen - diesmal, dem Zeitalter entsprechend, technischer Natur." (p.111) "Die Ruestung der Titanen ist vor allem technischer Natur" (p.120) Juenger on his essays: "Allen Essays gemeinsam ist die Auseindersetzung mit dem Fortschritt, speziell mit der Uebermacht der Technik, die unser Jahrhundert auf allen Gebieten in immer rascherer Folge ueberwaeltigt." (p.190) Quotes from _Siebzig verweht V_ (Stuttgart: Klett- Cotta 1997). Taking the liberty of placing these quotes against the background of some recent developments in the technical field. Comments welcome from listmembers. British Professor Kevin Warwick, Reading University, caught the eyes and ears of the the world financial elite recently at the Davos world conference on politics and economy with his thesis that humans will soon loose their monopoly as the only intelligent creature on earth. - I think that within 20 - 30 years we will experience machines that think better in their special fields than humans. Then the machine will be the dominating creation on earth. (Source: Aftenposten, Oslo, 8 February, 1998). Professor Warwick's new book _March of the Machines_ (1997) is an apocalyptic vision of a world where we become slaves to machines. Artificial intelligence, an overview of robotics research and experimentation in academic institutions and technology's prominence as a theme within fictional writing are all part of Warwick's study of how rapidly and - he argues - uncontrollably machines are beginning to engineer the human race instead of the other way around. Warwick himself has said that in writing the book he wanted to show the following: We humans are presently the dominant life form on Earth mainly because of our overall intelligence. It is possible for machines to become more intelligent than humans in the reasonably near future. [Roberto Calvo Macias] This question takes as to the etern problem of free will. Admittely, machines will be able to take decissions if they have all the parametres, problably bassed in quantum decisions, but they wiil never have this parameters, all the parameters. Thats human power, the capability of taking decisions in Blind, in terra incognita. This subject, wiil never be replicated in machines. They dont understand concepts as irrationality, madness, which are fundamentals in free will. Machines will then become the dominant life form on earth. [Roberto Calvo Macias] Problably, in future, a machines Army will dominate world, upon the direction of a human, or few humans who must take the final- or the first, if want to say-- decision. That prediction could seems terrible, to me not. That would the first day taht humans will consider themselves as one and unique specie, that we are all brothers. The day that we will have a common enemy. Granted, that would be a good tyme to live it. IŽd like to be there. Various robots have been designed and built in order to prove and demonstrate important aspects of machine intelligence, such as learning, communication and individual behaviour, which is presented in the book. Warwick is undoubtedly one of the world's leading expert in cybernetics, and his views are not just to be brushed off as speculation. In the book he unveils the first robots that can learn, communicate with each other and reprogramme themselves - and warns that future generations will rule the world. Even the most conservative estimates indicate that in the early part of the next century computational power will be greater than that of the human brain. Last year the world chess champion won a tournament against the world's most powerful chess computer - but next year? Advancements in robotics, particularly in optical and biological systems are also speeding up intelligent machines' abilities to move, operate and be effective in the everyday world. Within the next 10 to 50 years artificial intelligence systems will have been developed - not only at Kevin Warwick's cybernetics department at Reading University, but also, for instance, in Japan. These will be not only more intelligent than humans but also exhibit a significant number of advantages; they will be faster, more reliable, quicker to learn and more robust. Will the robots of the future treat us as we currently treat other creatures - with human farms, human pets and human zoos? This may be the best we can hope for. Kevin Warwick refutes the sceptics, not only by questioning their assumptions and prejudices about what should be considered as intelligence and consciousness, but also by revealing what he has achieved, building robots that communicate in their own language, share experiences, teach each other lessons and behave as they wish with regard to human beings. He makes an urgent plea for an international anti-proliferation treaty if we are to stand any chance of preventing the terrifying scenarios he describes. Warfare in the 21st century will seemingly be far from the trench warfare of World War I Juenger participated in. The idea of close engagement is fading. Instead long range missiles will probably destroy air defenses and other key infrastructure. Inexpensive platforms will be needed to field large number of smaller missiles or other projectiles. Thus a new "arsenal ship" is developed in the United States. It would be partly submerged to avoid detection, will cos les than a fifth of an aircraft carrier and the crew would be less than 50 people. "Information warfare" will be used to wreck the enemy's computing, financial, telecoms and traffic control systems. Relevant "weapons" in this war would be computer viruses, electro-magnetic pulses, microwave beams and well-placed bombs to smash satellites. Disinformation will be used on "the battlefield" to mislead the enemy with decoys. UAV's (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) will be used in a battlefield virtually without people. As usual EJ may have been right all along. If in peace and war this is what we will experience his prognosis could have been correct since the 1920s. Can man really control the technical development in the 21st century ? Greetings Bertil Haggman [Roberto Calvo Macias] very interesting. I agree Thomas Friese comentaries. IŽd like to read this book. Bertil, do you know if there is a sapnish edition? Thanks in advance.
Follow Ups to this Message
Markup © John King, 2012. Web archive generated Thu, 20th May 2010.